CME Scoreboard

Prediction for CME (2015-09-18T04:30:00-CME-001)

Product: Forecast Discussion
Issued: 2015 Sep 19 0030 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center

Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at low levels. Region 2415 (S19W29, Eac/beta-gamma)
produced a long duration C2/Sf flare at 18/0631 UTC. Type II (850 km/s)
and Type IV radio sweeps accompanied an associated coronal mass ejection
(CME). Modeling of the event shows the majority of the ejected directed
south of Earth with the northern flank possibly producing a glancing
blow around the early portion of 21 Sep.

Region 2418 (S14E05, Cho/beta) and Region 2419 (N12E08, Cai/beta)
remained relatively simple and inactive over the past 24 hours. Region
2415 saw slight development in its intermediate spots. No other
Earth-directed CMEs were observed during the period.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels, with a chance for
M-class (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) flares all three days (19-21 Sep),
primarily due to the flare probability of Region 2415.


Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux ranged from normal to high levels
with a peak flux of 2,640 pfu at 18/0045 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV
proton flux was at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to
high levels on day one (19 Sep). Electron flux is expected to decrease
to normal to moderate levels for day two and three (20-21 Sep) due to
the onset of a coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) coupled with a
possible glancing blow from the 18 Sep CME. The greater than 10 MeV
proton flux is expected to continue at background levels.


Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
The solar wind, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, depicted mostly
nominal conditions. Total magnetic field strength was variable between
5-7 nT. Wind speeds trended upwards from lows around 380 km/s early in
the period to around 450 km/s by the end of the period. Bz maintained a
predominantly weak southward component to -6 nT with brief intervals
of positive (towards) direction. Phi angle remained in a predominately
positive (away) over the past 24 hours.

.Forecast...
Solar wind velocities are expected to remain at nominal levels
throughout day one (19 Sep). Early on day two (20 Sep) a weak
co-rotating interaction region (CIR) is expected become geoeffective
ahead of an isolated, positive polarity coronal hole high speed stream
(CH HSS). The potential exists for enhancement in the solar wind on day
three (21 Sep) from a glancing blow from the northern flank of the 18
Sep CME.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
Geomagnetic activity was at quiet to unsettled levels.

.Forecast...
Geomagnetic activity is expected to be quiet to active on day one (19
Sep). A weak CIR ahead of the positive polarity CH HSS is expected to
arrive early on day two (20 Sep) and could cause a geomagnetic response
up to minor storm (G1 - Minor) levels. Day three will see continued
response from the CH HSS with the potential for additional enhancement
to minor storm (G1 - Minor) levels under the influence of a glancing
blow from the 18 Sep CME.

Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in your account, go to the Product Subscription Site. Please do not use the from address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help, please contact SWPC Help.

CCMC Rules of the Road: CCMC requests that users notify the CCMC, CME model/technique developers and submitting forecasters/researchers before performing event and validation studies with data from the CME Arrival Time Scoreboard. It is recommended that such studies be performed with the knowledge and collaboration of developers and submitting forecasters/researchers.

If you are looking for the official U.S. Government forecast for space weather, please go to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (https://swpc.noaa.gov). This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.

Curator: Chiu Wiegand | NASA Official: Dr. Masha Kuznetsova | Privacy and Security Notices | Accessibility | CCMC Data Policy